Demographics
and share prices
This chart
shows the price earnings earnings ratio of shares and the ratio of middle aged
to old aged people – old people sell shares, middle aged people buy them. As
the number of old people rises, the valuation of shares fall – and that’s what
lies ahead of us.
HNY everyone!
Time
to dash to NZ and Ch. Ch.
We’re
(father and son) off for a bike ride, the Otago rail trail.
This
site shows 126 quakes in the past week.
A
lot of people have gone for forecasts for 2012:
What
will the world be like in 2012?
I
think we’ll see further industry consolidation, but I also think we’ll see the
industry groaning and creaking with the winds of change. Primarily though
regulatory reform with some less enduring reforms being those simply inspired
by political grandstanding or some flash in the pan shareholder activism (once
healthy dividends resume, all sins of excess will be forgotten).
I
also think we’ll see a sideways year for equities and commodities (caveat
China). Residential real estate will also trend sideways but there will be
opportunities for those getting set in commercial real estate for the recovery.
The great deleveraging will continue....and inflation is coming.
Ohh,
and the Euro will be OK. There will be no break up and the ECB will issue some
Euro bonds.
That
said, I thought the Jean-Claude Trichet piece outlining his call for a
federalised Europe was particularly poor. It reads more like a call to arms
than a reasoned basis for policy and financial integration.
I think the wind is out of the sails of the NYSE / DB deal.
EMCF publish new rules relating to interoperability.
Meanwhile in Aust we move closer to margining equities in
2012.
I think the SEC has taken the side of inertia and
indifference with the Lehman / Barclays position.
A link to the G-SIFIs and an interesting unintended
consequence....the too big to fail brand means the tax payer guarantee is
implied anyway.
Marsal takes 500myn in fees to manage bankruptcy. Bleurrrgh.
Tell that to the face of a creditor.
Have a happy, healthy and fun new year.
S
Trading
AMSTERDAM
-(Dow Jones)- The Dutch government is threatening to block a possible sale of
the derivative business in Amsterdam, The Dutch government is concerned that a
sale of the business could hurt the position of the Netherlands as a financial
hub,
In a regulatory filing, Deutsche Boerse and
NYSE Euronext said they have decided to push back the deadline for completing
their merger until March 31.
NYSE shareholders lose enthusiasm
for Deutsche Boerse deal
Prospects for the proposed merger of Deutsche Boerse and NYSE Euronext continue to dim as regulatory negotiations continue. Some NYSE Euronext shareholders are losing interest or becoming increasingly pessimistic that the deal won't be approved. "The smoke signals are reasonably obvious at this point that this deal will not happen," said Brian Barish, president and chief investment officer of Cambiar Investors, the 10th-biggest shareholder of NYSE Euronext.
Prospects for the proposed merger of Deutsche Boerse and NYSE Euronext continue to dim as regulatory negotiations continue. Some NYSE Euronext shareholders are losing interest or becoming increasingly pessimistic that the deal won't be approved. "The smoke signals are reasonably obvious at this point that this deal will not happen," said Brian Barish, president and chief investment officer of Cambiar Investors, the 10th-biggest shareholder of NYSE Euronext.
BATS Global Markets has set April 30 as the
date when Chi-X Europe will begin operating live on BATS technology. Separate
order books though will be kept for Chi-X Europe and BATS Europe.
Direct Edge Adds a Pricing Tier, Lowers 2 Rebates
Direct Edge said it plans to start a new tier
of pricing, while maintaining the top rate on a tier that rewards active market
participants. The operator of two national exchanges also plans to lower
rebates on two tiers.
LSE might start trade-data service
for OTC derivatives
The London Stock Exchange is considering expanding its trade-data service to include over-the-counter derivatives. "We are in very early discussions with UK regulators about the possibility of using the UnaVista TRS as a registered trade repository for OTC derivatives," said Mark Husler, head of business development in the exchange's data division. Reuters (15 Dec.)
The London Stock Exchange is considering expanding its trade-data service to include over-the-counter derivatives. "We are in very early discussions with UK regulators about the possibility of using the UnaVista TRS as a registered trade repository for OTC derivatives," said Mark Husler, head of business development in the exchange's data division. Reuters (15 Dec.)
Clearing
EMCF
Interoperability Rule Changes
EMCF
updated Clearing Rulebook (interoperability)
EMCF
Interoperability Fund
LCH.Clearnet
Interoperability FAQ
ASX
Equities Margining: Q2, ’12 Margin reports, Q4, ’12 EoD margin calls, Q1, ’13
Intraday margining.
Derivatives
Notices:
ATTACHMENT A TO CLM139/11: CASH MARKET MARGINING PROJECT - DECEMBER 2011 MARKET
COMMUNICATION
CHESS
Bulletins:
BATCH SETTLEMENT - PARTIAL WAIVER OF ASX SETTLEMENT OPERATING RULE 10.4.5
Policy
Jean-Claude Trichet, the former ECB President, has just
published an op-ed outlining his call for a federalised Europe
A
centralized Europe is a globalized Europe
NYSE Euronext sub-penny proposal
proves controversial
NYSE Euronext has proposed allowing its members to quote in sub-pennies. Some industry insiders want NYSE to slow the plan. SIFMA told the Securities and Exchange Commission that it raised "significant market structure implications that require additional time to be considered."
NYSE Euronext has proposed allowing its members to quote in sub-pennies. Some industry insiders want NYSE to slow the plan. SIFMA told the Securities and Exchange Commission that it raised "significant market structure implications that require additional time to be considered."
Specifically, the NYSE will be providing selective access via a
RLI, a flag that indicates that a better price exists on the exchange, which
will be distributed through proprietary market data feeds and not through the
Consolidated Quote Stream. Market participants that do not pay for this
proprietary data feed, which often may be smaller firms, will not have access
to this liquidity information. Also, even if market participants can
access the proprietary data feeds, they will be unable to access the quote
unless they can
attest that the request is to fill an order for a retail
customer. This requirement thus precludes institutional investors from
accessing that quote. SIFMA believes that this Program therefore raises
selective access concerns and appears to run contrary to the mandate in
Regulation NMS for open, non-discriminatory access to quotes.
SEC sides with Lehman in dispute
with Barclays
Lehman Brothers Holdings won support from the Securities and Exchange Commission in its asset dispute with Barclays. The agency said Lehman doesn't have enough money to repay customers, and that Barclays has a conditional claim on money held in reserve. "The commission wishes to ensure that assets held in the special reserve bank account for the exclusive benefit of customers, as well as other assets required to be held for the benefit of customers, are properly administered in the event a broker-dealer is liquidated," the SEC said.
Lehman Brothers Holdings won support from the Securities and Exchange Commission in its asset dispute with Barclays. The agency said Lehman doesn't have enough money to repay customers, and that Barclays has a conditional claim on money held in reserve. "The commission wishes to ensure that assets held in the special reserve bank account for the exclusive benefit of customers, as well as other assets required to be held for the benefit of customers, are properly administered in the event a broker-dealer is liquidated," the SEC said.
Financial
Stability Board: Policy Measures to Address Systemically Important Financial
Institutions
G-SIFIs
list
...And
Capital surcharge requirements...
Commentary: G-SIFI designation
might be backfiring
Global regulators are implementing rules to battle the concept that some financial institutions have become too big to fail, but those rules appear poised to backfire, CNBC.com Senior Editor John Carney writes. From "what I'm hearing from people at smaller Wall Street firms, [systemically important financial institution] is already becoming a code word for 'ultra-safe counterparty' against whom minimal collateral requirements may be charged", Carney writes. CNBC/NetNet blog (21 Dec.)
Global regulators are implementing rules to battle the concept that some financial institutions have become too big to fail, but those rules appear poised to backfire, CNBC.com Senior Editor John Carney writes. From "what I'm hearing from people at smaller Wall Street firms, [systemically important financial institution] is already becoming a code word for 'ultra-safe counterparty' against whom minimal collateral requirements may be charged", Carney writes. CNBC/NetNet blog (21 Dec.)
SIFMA seeks to broaden discussion
of high-frequency trading
SIFMA today will release a white paper that calls for more discussion about high-frequency trading and how it affects the broader market structure and other investing. The paper also notes that high-frequency trading has yet to be accurately defined. "It's a characterization that's undefined," said Randy Snook, executive vice president at SIFMA. "We think there are a range of computer-based trading strategies and our objective with this paper is to focus on behaviors that are disruptive, and not necessarily focus on the speed of trading." SIFMA SmartBrief readers can get their first look at SIFMA's statement and white paper.
SIFMA today will release a white paper that calls for more discussion about high-frequency trading and how it affects the broader market structure and other investing. The paper also notes that high-frequency trading has yet to be accurately defined. "It's a characterization that's undefined," said Randy Snook, executive vice president at SIFMA. "We think there are a range of computer-based trading strategies and our objective with this paper is to focus on behaviors that are disruptive, and not necessarily focus on the speed of trading." SIFMA SmartBrief readers can get their first look at SIFMA's statement and white paper.
Participants
Lehman Pays Marsal Firm Almost $500 Million to Manage Bankruptcy
BusinessWeek
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. has paid almost half a billion dollars in fees to restructuring firm Alvarez & Marsal LLC during its bankruptcy, according to a court filing.
BusinessWeek
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. has paid almost half a billion dollars in fees to restructuring firm Alvarez & Marsal LLC during its bankruptcy, according to a court filing.
Lehman,
which has spent more than $1.5 billion on fees since filing the biggest bankruptcy
in U.S. history in September 2008
Marsal,
who bills Lehman hourly, has said he will start distributing some cash to the
defunct firm’s creditors by next year, more than three years after the
bankruptcy filing. He has court approval for a $65 billion liquidation plan
that would pay the average Lehman creditor less than 18 cents on the dollar in
the next few years, according to court papers
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-12-27/lehman-pays-marsal-firm-almost-500-million-to-manage-bankruptcy.html
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-12-27/lehman-pays-marsal-firm-almost-500-million-to-manage-bankruptcy.html
JPMorgan leads ranking of global
investment banks
JPMorgan Chase collected 8.1% of the $68 billion in total revenue of investment banks around the world this year, according to Dealogic. Bank of America Merrill Lynch's share was 7.4% and Goldman Sachs Group had 5.8%. Meanwhile, Freeman & Co., a New York-based research firm, said that as of Dec. 19, the global, year-to-date investment banking fee pool was $78.6 billion. Bloomberg (12/20)
JPMorgan Chase collected 8.1% of the $68 billion in total revenue of investment banks around the world this year, according to Dealogic. Bank of America Merrill Lynch's share was 7.4% and Goldman Sachs Group had 5.8%. Meanwhile, Freeman & Co., a New York-based research firm, said that as of Dec. 19, the global, year-to-date investment banking fee pool was $78.6 billion. Bloomberg (12/20)
The
mysterious millionaires factory
Macquarie
is a global financial services company with over 15,000 employers, just over
half of whom are based outside Australia. It acts primarily as an intermediary
for institutional, corporate and retail clients around the world, with a
particularly strong presence in the Asia-Pacific region. Macquarie
services include (but are not limited to)
Stuff
How
Australia (or Western Australia at least) digs itself out of a GFC.
Create
& Collaborate
"If
you're unhappy, nine times out of ten it's because you're clinging onto
something.
Nine times out of ten, happiness and letting go are synonymous."
Nine times out of ten, happiness and letting go are synonymous."
Better
keep yourself clean and bright; you are the window through which you must see
the world."
--George
Bernard Shaw, Irish playwright
Whatever
you can do or dream you can, begin it.
Boldness has genius, power and magic in it!”
Boldness has genius, power and magic in it!”
Johann
Wolfgang von Goethe
“The
moment one definitely commits oneself, then Providence moves, too.”
― W.H. Murray in The Scottish Himalaya Expedition, 1951
― W.H. Murray in The Scottish Himalaya Expedition, 1951
Act
boldly and unseen forces will come to your aid."
--Dorothea Brande, American writer and editor
It
is a fair, even-handed, noble adjustment of things, that while there is
infection in disease and sorrow, there is nothing in the world so irresistibly
contagious as laughter and good-humour."
--Charles Dickens, British author
I
think making mistakes and discovering them for yourself is of great value, but
to have someone else to point out your mistakes is a shortcut of the
process."
--Shelby Foote, American historian and novelist
Ability
will never catch up with the demand for it."
--Confucius, Chinese philosopher
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