Friday, October 19, 2012


Another week in London….and the seasons are changing.
Already the evenings are closing in.

One thing I’m trying to do at the moment is work out the best way to back up my contacts. I’m an open source fan, so that puts me in the Android camp (and a little bit in Apple denial). I do like my smartphone and how seamlessly Gmail, contacts and calendar synchronise. Then there is the added benefit of Google providing this blogspot.
Previously I had mentioned that Microsoft is relaunching Hotmail under the @outlook suffix. (I’ve taken the alias scott_riley@outlook.com). What I do like about Outlook is it seamlessly integrates with LinkedIn.
For those of you that are LinkedIn fans I recommend an outlook account just for the benefit of synchronising all those LinkedIn contacts.

I was also asked by The Trade to write a short piece on Competition in Australian Clearing. Extract of that is below…not sure when it will be published and in which medium. I think in the next week or so.

The Burgundy acquisition, like Turquoise, I assume is a polite dividend to the founders on exit. Just as interesting is the switch to Millennium from Cinnober.
Good luck to Spain-X. I like the white label concept of QuoteMTF in terms of cost efficiency. I think PAVE might have some interesting thoughts on Spanish liquidity.

Have a great week-end all…and don’t be held hostage by the weather.

Scott.



PLATFORMS

Oslo Bors acquires Swedish neighbour Burgundy

Established in 2008 by a consortium of Swedish banks and brokerages as a corrective to the dominance of Nasdaq OMX, Burgundy currently commands a turnover of approximately $2 billion in Swedish share trading, a fraction of the $33 billion claimed by its bigger rival.
Under the deal, Oslo Børs will scrap Burgundy's Cinnober-based trading platform and migrate the exchange to the London Stock Exchange's Millennium system. Oslo is moving to Millennium next month and Burgundy will follow some time in 2013.

Capital Partners Group reaches agreement with QuoteMTF to launch a Spanish trading venue/Spain-X.com
European equity trading venue Quote MTF and London-based investment bank Capital Partners have outlined plans to enter the Spanish market.
In February, an MTF, called Pave, that had planned to take on the BME, was forced to put its launch on ice, citing "the very challenging market and harsh financial environment in Europe, especially in Spain".
http://www.finextra.com/News/Fullstory.aspx?newsitemid=24184



PARTICIPANTS

‘‘This shows how dysfunctional this organization is, to have this event unfold this way,’’ Whalen said. ‘‘They should have told us yesterday, unless they didn’t know.’’
Since joining the bank in December 2007, Pandit has made at least $56.4 million, according to data compiled for The Associated Press by Equilar, an executive pay research firm.
That includes salary, bonuses, benefits and perks and stock awards. Pandit also made about $165 million from a buyout of his ownership stake in Old Lane Partners, a hedge fund he founded that was acquired by Citi.



STUFF

GP Receptionists.
I just don’t understand why GP receptionists are universally obnoxious.
Totally agree with this post:
Me (exasperated – bad service always winds me up): “It is not an emergency. I am not actually dying just yet, which would be an emergency and I probably would not be chatting to you on the phone about it quite so casually, but the pain in my right knee tells me that it is urgent because it will only get worse. I know because it has happened before.”
Receptionist (feeling offended because she thinks that I have shouted at her): “You can either have a regular appointment and it is three weeks. Or, if it is an emergency, you can come in today. Better still, go to casualty.”

Why is swimming the channel so hard?


CLEARING

Competitive Clearing in Australia
Joining the game.
So far in this “Asian Century” it appears that competition in market infrastructure has been more aggressively pursued in the Western economies of the US, Europe and Canada. That position is now changing in Asia with various forms of market infrastructure competition starting to take shape in locations including Australia, Japan and India.
Materiality, proportionality and suitability.
Much has been made about the relative success of competition in trading in Australia. One issue it raises is the question of materiality. There is a vast difference in the “wallet size” of the Australian market versus some of the other economies where competition has become a feature of the local market.  As the incumbent exchange, the ASX in their 2012 annual report for Equity (cash) secondary markets discloses gross revenues of A$36 million in trading, A$46 million in clearing and A$42 million in settlement. To make a meaningful business case in any of these segments of the transaction value chain you need to acquire either significant market share from the incumbent or have a compelling case that you are going to substantially grow the market.
Another way to make the business case for competition more compelling is by expanding the range of products. The recent news of LCH.Clearnet applying to provide clearing services has increased speculation in this area. The SwapClear product caters for a growing need (if not regulatory demand) of participants. It is noted the clearing economics and participants in the OTC market are very different to those of the equity market.
Progress to date
As a fast to market solution Chi-X Australia announced it would use the services of ASX clearing. Chi-X Australia signed up for a 5 year term in Oct 2011 on a non-exclusive basis to use ASX’s clearing services. So, although Chi-X Australia is free to use any clearing service provider (incumbent or new entrant), they are committed to paying ASX an annual clearing access fee of A$275,000 until 2016.
One way the exchange sector has responded to new entrants is through consolidation. At the end of 2010 SGX and ASX announced a proposed deal valuing ASX at A$8.4 billion. This deal was subsequently abandoned however a joint regulatory review of the Australian post trade structure was triggered by the Council of Financial Regulators. This review has highlighted the issues between a local “bricks and mortar” operation and that of an off shore operator. What peace of mind would Australian regulators have in the event of a foreign operated central counterparty managing exposures in the event of a default? Which sovereign state would take priority?
Incumbent position
ASX is certainly not resting on their laurels. Just as they positioned themselves for the advent of trading competition they are already doing so in the clearing space. The structure of clearing fees has already been reviewed and new fees introduced (e.g. the Chess 156 message). Although this move may be “revenue neutral” today, it already begins to raise a cautionary flag in terms of structural barriers to entry and a level playing field.

So, does Australia need competition in clearing? Quite simply, Yes, it does. However any competitive offering will need to take into consideration the context of the various “drivers” that are shaping the local market. These include:
·         Wallet Size: business model, scope of services (OTC derivatives, equities etc.) and pricing
·         Ownership and Governance: Australian locals, International majors etc.
·         Barriers to entry: Government policy settings
·         Incumbent responses:  Changes (not necessarily improvements) inspired by the threat of competition.
The final irony, is that if the ASX does want to take a more active role in regional and international consolidation, evidence of a more robust domestic competitive framework could be exactly the sort of catalyst required to provide regulators and policy setters with the peace of mind to allow this to happen.

Friday, October 12, 2012

London!...They're all at it, decouple location, LME...Iron Ore

G’day All!

This blog posting coming from London....and directly from my Google account.
I’m getting ready for a New Years Resolution to migrate away from dependency on Outlook contacts onto something more virtual and portable…and for now that is gmail.
So, for those that are picking this up via the blogspot or LinkedIn just send me an email if you want to rejoin the blog roll or list of people whom I “push” the blog out to on a Friday night.

Lots, as ever, going on in Europe. And as ever not enough time to cover it all.

NYSE, where Patrick Birley left this week, along with CME and Nasdaq all doing their thing.
I put the Singapore story in just because of the stupidity of it. The trading center of a commodity needs to have nothing to do with delivery points. I love the fact that Cork in Ireland used to be the epi-centre of the butter market. Today, Liverpool, UK (of Beatles fame) is the world centre for cotton trading. I see about as many cotton fields in the UK as I do open cut mines (think LME).
The LME numbers are eye-watering. 2.2byn for a 12myn profit business. Ouch.
And Greece loses a little of its effervescence.
I put the LiquidNet story under policy. Just because it continues to show the negative HFT sentiment that is still being fuelled out in the market.

In the Aussie markets there is a perception that all is well. Yes, a commodity boom covers over many ills. A lot of attention is placed on the FX and interest rates but not a lot of focus on the Iron Ore price which I think is a great bell weather for the nation. If China catches a cold (or find alternate supplies for their commodities), Australia will get a strong bout of pneumonia. All was rosey in the land down under and the Aussie battler is not battling too hard when iron ore is over $150/tonne. If iron ore drops below $100 it’ll be the banks that are battling.

Have a great week-end all!

S  


PLATFORMS

CME Europe Limited (CMEEL) application to become a Recognised Investment Exchange (RIE) under section 287 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000
CME Europe Limited (CMEEL) has made an application to the Financial Services Authority (FSA) to become a Recognised Investment Exchange (RIE) under section 287 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000.
CMEEL is a UK subsidiary of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. (CME Inc.) which proposes to establish a London-based derivatives exchange offering foreign exchange (FX) derivatives and expanding into other asset classes over time. CMEEL expects to launch the exchange in mid-2013.
http://www.oft.gov.uk/OFTwork/consultations/cmeel/

Nasdaq’s U.K. Derivatives Platform Seeks 10% Market Share
Nandini Sukumar - Bloomberg
Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. (NDAQ), which is setting up a derivatives trading system in London to compete with Europe’s two biggest futures exchanges, will seek more than 10 percent market share in its first year of operation.
“Success is at least 10 percent,” Nasdaq Chief Executive Officer Robert Greifeld said in an interview in London yesterday

Singapore Good Place for Water Derivatives Exchange
Bloomberg
Singapore would be a natural setting for a water derivatives exchange and it’s in country’s interest to set one up, the Straits Times reported, citing carbon-trading pioneer 
Richard Sandor.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-11/singapore-good-place-for-water-derivatives-exchange-times-says.html

Bucking the trend, LME looks at expanding floor trading
floor supporters hope that the new owner - the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd (HKSE) (0388.HK) - will attract ring-dealing members from China. For its part, the HKSE is eager to boost income after it paid $2.2 billion to beat out IntercontinentalExchange (ICE.N) to buy the LME, a steep premium for a market that turned in a profit of $12 million last year.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/11/us-lme-trading-open-outcry-idUSBRE89A07O20121011

Greece's biggest company, Coca Cola Hellenic, is leaving the country
Reuters
"The Greek bourse is losing a very good company and the London Stock Exchange is gaining a very important group," said Hatzidakis. "It's very bad news for the Greek economy and bourse."
For brokers on the stock exchange, losing a stock that made up 8 percent of daily turnover this year will be unwelcome - especially since total volumes are down by half since last year.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/11/us-greece-coke-idUSBRE89A17P20121011



CLEARING

Analysis: Commodity exchange battleground switches to "swaps"
Ann Saphir | Reuters
Chicago-based giant 
CME Group Inc. has lost ground in the estimated $1.2 billion-a-year business of guaranteeing over-the-counter swaps to arch-rivalIntercontinentalExchange Inc. in recent years, company data show, as the Atlanta-based upstart offered cutting-edge trade technology
http://news.yahoo.com/analysis-commodity-exchange-battleground-switches-swaps-231528137--finance.html

trueEX to Use CME Clearing to Power Swaps Execution
Press Release
trueEX, LLC, an electronic execution platform for the global interest rate swaps (IRS) market, announced today that it has executed a clearing agreement with CME Clearing. trueEX provides execution and processing services as a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market (DCM) for the global IRS market.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/news/trueex-cme-clearing-power-swaps-120000719.html

CFTC Staff Responds to Frequently Asked Questions on the Reporting of Cleared Swaps
Today, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) staff is responding to frequently asked questions from market participants and other interested parties on the reporting of cleared swaps as required under part 45 of the Commission’s regulations.



POLICY


Swap Transparency Hailed by Gensler as Rules Begin Oct. 12
Bloomberg
JPMorgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and the $648 trillion swaps market will enter a new era of transparency when Dodd-Frank Act regulations for dealers begin taking effect tomorrow.
Liquidnet in talks to expand European partnerships
In recent months, regulatory focus on high-frequency traders has intensified, with both US and European exchanges mulling tighter controls over the activity.
Merrin said: "With every regulator grappling with how to deal with high-frequency trading, we view ourselves as exchanges' instant solution to that problem. We are HFT-free and provide access to the largest pool of institutional liquidity money."


STUFF

The lore of ore
The most important commodity after oil deserves more attention than it gets
http://www.economist.com/node/21564559

HOUSES AND HOLES ON IRON ORE
This is more plausible but is still pretty rosy. My own view is that the global zombie will shuffle forward so long as Europe fails to abandon its fiscal suicide pact so I see 2013 steel output as flat. Hence, an average iron ore price of $110 is more likely in the first half and then falling again in the second. Same for metallurgic coal. Australian production expansion will need further rationalisation in both.
There is also a potted history of iron ore at The Economist today but it is surprisingly free of useful data and hence its conclusions are pretty useless.
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/10/daily-iron-ore-price-update-8/?utm_source=Media+List&utm_campaign=545475bf20-RSS_DAILY_MAILCHIMP_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email

KICKSTARTER COMES TO THE UK
Crowdfunding site Kickstarter will launch in the UK at the end of the month, providing a platform for Brits to raise funds for projects.
Full story: http://www.finextra.com/News/Fullstory.aspx?newsitemid=24162