Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Merry X-mas and wise men


G’day All,

Well, how time flies.
I’ve had my head buried trying to close out some year end reports so utterly behind in my reading.
I guess sub prime is still about.

There is one wise man whose every word I have considered (ever since that first Lamfalussy report a life time ago)
http://ec.europa.eu/internal_market/securities/lamfalussy/index_en.htm
hence I loved this little thought:
“There will always be – and there should be – crises, because that is how the market corrects itself in a capitalist world. However, we want to avoid local crises becoming full-blown systemic issues of macro-prudential concern,” said Baron Alexandre Lamfalussy.
http://www.blogger.com/www.Eurofi.net

I also enjoyed this (picture).


It has been a hectic and rollercoaster year.
I wish you one and all a festive break.

I for one, will be relishing the time with family and friends.
(and I hope those Aussie cricketers learn to defend a wicket and come up with some bowling penetration before the next test with the Saffa’s)

A very merry Xmas all,
Till the new year,

S




Definition of a mine: A whole in the ground with a liar standing next to it.
Even a rat (one small evil in the financial system) can drown a nation by gnawing through a dyke.

Equiduct, a fifth so-called “multilateral trading facility”, aims to join the pack in February. It is 53 per cent owned by Börse Berlin, with 23 per cent held by Jos Peeters, a Belgian venture capitalist and a former founder of the Easdaq exchange, with the rest held by Knight Capital and other investment banks, including Goldman Sachs through a former investment in Easdaq.

Equity volumes slump amid market turmoil The number of trades executed on Europe’s three largest stock exchanges fell almost 40% between October and November, as fund managers retrenched in the face of extreme market volatility and restricted access to capital.
New platforms struggle to get customers on board Like London buses turning up en masse at empty bus stops, Europe’s new alternative trading systems have, within a few months of each other, launched into the deadest equity trading market in years.
Crisis pushes clearing higher up the agenda Months of talk with little action in Europe’s clearing business have given way to a late rush of activity.
FPL ELECTS JOHN FILDES CO-CHAIR FIX PROTOCOL GLOBAL STEERING COMMITTEE
http://www.finextra.com/fullpr.asp?id=25158


FINANCIAL TIMES: Equiduct Takes MTF GambleBy Jeremy Grant 12/17/08

With equity market volumes tumbling, now might not be the best time to be planning to launch yet another alternative equities trading platform in Europe.The region has already seen the launch of three of them since August: Turquoise, BATS Europe and Nasdaq OMX Europe. Chi-X, majority owned by broker Instinet Europe, was the first to arrive on the scene last year.Equiduct, a fifth so-called “multilateral trading facility”, aims to join the pack in February.It is 53 per cent owned by Börse Berlin, with 23 per cent held by Jos Peeters, a Belgian venture capitalist and a former founder of the Easdaq exchange, with the rest held by Knight Capital and other investment banks, including Goldman Sachs through a former investment in Easdaq.It was only a few months ago that the prospect of MTFs competing with the London Stock Exchange, Deutsche Börse and Euronext was met with excitement as they promised lower fees and faster trading systems.Yet being cheap is no longer the proposition it was, since a vicious price war has slashed prices to rock bottom levels. Nor is having the fastest technology necessarily the knock-out weapon it might have initially seemed. Many MTFs now execute trades in microseconds, although BATS insists that speed is still vital because it allows traders to get in and out of their positions faster than on other venues when the market moves.Instead, Equiduct has spent months developing a specialisation that aims to solve for traders the fragmentation of liquidity and market data that has become a worrisome by-product of competition.Europe has no “consolidated tape”, where prices are aggregated, unlike the US. To circumvent this, banks and brokers have developed “smart-order routing” systems that detect where the best price for an order may be across a range of trading venues, and send orders there.That way, they hope to meet their obligations under the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive, enacted a year ago by Brussels, to demonstrate that they are providing clients with “best execution”.Yet, for medium to small-sized brokers especially, the cost of having such routers can be prohibitive.Equiduct’s technology – which it calls Orange VBBO – aggregates prices from all the existing trading venues in one place, showing how much trading there is and whether there was a better price available elsewhere.Niki Beattie, managing director of The Market Structure Practice, a consultancy, said that as market fragmentation continues, Equiduct’s model “is starting to look more compelling”.“They have the only decent consolidated data for liquid stocks and they also have some very powerful analytics about what is happening on the MTFs and exchanges,” she says.Equiduct is also offering users a choice in where their trades are cleared, rather than tying them to one clearing solution – as its rival MTFs do.Yet providing both services has involved significant up-front investment. Artur Fischer, Equiduct chief executive, admits this is “a gamble”.He also concedes that there is “a real threat” that others could copy what Equiduct is doing, if it works.But he insists that, as the market continues to fragment, Equiduct will allow traders to see “a much deeper order book”.Some people in the markets may be sceptical of Equiduct, given that it was forced to change its pricing model in August. The timing of its launch has also slipped into next year.Mr Fischer acknowledges that market conditions are not ideal. “I am in a marketplace with declining transactions, so I am not in as good a position as my competitors. But the timing is perfect for us because of fragmentation.”






AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW: Opinion -- Competitive and Fair Trading System EssentialBy Carole Comerton-Forde12/12/08After extensive market consultation and an Australian Securities and Investments Commission submission to the government in March, a decision on whether the Australian Securities Exchange will face competition for trading services has been “imminent” for many months.The global financial crisis is undoubtedly driving the delay in the government’s decision, and the consequential volatility and uncertainty. The debate on whether the ASX should retain a self- regulatory role in a competitive marketplace makes the decision more complex. The current volatility and related regulatory concerns, such as those relating to short selling, place increased focus on determining the most appropriate regulatory regime.The delay in the government’s decision making has created a valuable window of opportunity for the ASX to enhance its market structure. Early last month it announced a series of changes and additions to its equities trading environment. Some, such as the reintroduction of undisclosed orders, are long overdue. Others, such as the introduction of VolumeMatch, mark a significant shift in the ASX’s approach to trading services.The proposed changes recognise that there is no “one size fits all” approach and that different types of traders have different trading needs. The changes are aimed at meeting the needs of institutional traders. Assuming that the ASX obtains regulatory approval, institutional clients will be offered a range of alternative trading mechanisms that will help them reduce information leakage and cut execution costs.The ASX announced four initiatives. The common feature of three of them is that they reduce the level of transparency in the market, particularly the transparency of large orders and trades. Orders exceeding $500,000 may remain undisclosed; orders of any size may be “hidden” by the use of an iceberg order and the size requirements for block special crossings will be reduced. Most notably, the ASX also plans to introduce a “dark pool” dubbed VolumeMatch. In addition, Centre Point orders and Centre Point priority crossings will allow participants to internalise orders at the mid-point price without any prior disclosure to the market.The changes proposed by the ASX have many similarities to those proposed by AXE ECN and Liquidnet in their applications for market licences. This is not surprising given that these types of market structures are common in the US and European markets. The surprising aspect of the ASX’s proposed changes is that they appear to contradict many of the arguments it made against competition in the consultation process.For example, the ASX argued that “pre-trade and post-trade transparency are essential to an efficient securities market because they enable price discovery, assist with market surveillance and contribute to market integrity”. However, the proposed changes seek to reduce pre-trade transparency.The ASX also argued that “widespread use of crossings is likely to worsen market spreads and increase volatility because it allows market participants to take advantage of information hidden from the general market”. Again, the proposed changes will create new opportunities for crossings by reducing the restrictions on when they can occur.It is not clear why these mechanisms will be advantageous for the market when they are offered by the ASX, given that the ASX vigorously argued that the provision of these types of trading structures by competitors would seriously undermine the liquidity and integrity of the Australian market.Experience in other markets and numerous academic studies suggest that the proposed changes are likely to offer significant benefits to the market in increased liquidity and lower transaction costs. So despite the continued absence of competition, the mere threat of competition appears to have given rise to innovation that will enhance the quality of the market.While this is good news for the Australian market as a whole, applicants for market licences are unlikely to agree that it is good news.The process identifies a number of key imperatives for the Australian market. It is imperative that competitors are given licences to ensure continued innovation and development. It is also imperative that all participants face the same regulatory constraints and operate on a level playing field. This includes the need for clear resolution on how the regulation of competing markets will be handled. It also requires that uncertainty be reduced by providing clear time frames to all parties involved.A competitive and fair market is in the interests of all participants. It’s to be hoped that resolution on these issues will soon be achieved. * Carole Comerton-Forde is an associate professor of finance at the University of Sydney. She has previously acted as a consultant for both the Australian Securities Exchange and AXE ECN. She is an ASX Ltd shareholder.




CANADA STOCKWATCH: Pure Trading's Volume Rises; Alpha Growing By Mike Caswell12/16/08Pure Trading's daily volume rose again in the week ended Dec. 12, 2008, averaging 9.8 million shares a day, up from 7.2 million the prior week. Its share of the market also increased to 1.68 per cent, up from 1.41 per cent.The most active stock was Blue Note Mining Inc., which traded 6.4 million shares. On Thursday the company closed at two cents on volume of 30.3 million shares, after it released drill results from its Williams Brook property. Blue Note was followed by Breakwater Resources Ltd. with 2.8 million shares and Conjuchem Biotechnologies Inc. with 2.5 million.While Pure Trading is the most active of Canada's alternative trading systems, it is facing increasing competition from other ATSs. Its strongest competitor in the week was Alpha Trading Systems, which had average volume of 7.7 million shares per day. Alpha was followed by Chi-X Canada with 4.7 million shares and Omega ATS with 639,100.The most notable change from the prior week is that Alpha had more volume than Chi-X Canada for the first time. Most of the gains came on Monday, when Alpha traded 11.4 million shares. On that day, it was the most active of Canada's ATSs, with its volume even exceeding that of Pure Trading. Also notable is that Alpha still has just 71 symbols in its system, a small fraction of the 2,200 stocks that the others have. (Omega also has the 2,400 symbols from the TSX Venture Exchange, which it added on Nov. 17, 2008.)Alpha, which is owned by the big banks and by Canaccord Capital Corp., has been slowly adding stocks to its system since its Nov. 11 launch. It started with just 10 symbols, and on Dec. 5 increased the number to 71. Last week represents its first full week with 71 symbols available.Although Chi-X dropped below Alpha in volumes, it still leads all ATSs in number of trades. During the week, there were 194,599 trades on Chi-X Canada. This far exceeded Pure Trading, which had 50,986, and Alpha, which had 41,942. The obvious explanation for the difference is that Alpha and Pure Trading have larger trades run through their systems, while Chi-X Canada has smaller ones.There was still no news or volume reports from Canada's other ATS, Liquidnet Canada. It is owned by Liquidnet Holdings Inc., which runs a larger ATS in the United States. It occasionally publishes its volumes in quarterly reports or news releases. These generally show that it lags Pure Trading.


REUTERS: SEC's Cox Questions Agency Conduct on Madoff CaseBy Rachelle Younglai12/16/08The chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said on Tuesday he was "gravely concerned" by the agency's apparent multiple failures to thoroughly investigate allegations of wrongdoing at broker Bernard Madoff's firm.Madoff, a former Nasdaq Stock Market chairman, was arrested and charged last week with running a massive Ponzi scheme that may have racked up $50 billion in potential losses.The SEC has come under fire for not uncovering the scandal until senior employees of Madoff went to authorities last week. The investor protection agency has been accused of missing a number of red flags about the way Madoff operated his investment business."Our initial findings have been deeply troubling," SEC Chairman Christopher Cox said in a statement late on Tuesday.Cox said the SEC has learned that credible and specific allegations regarding Madoff's financial wrongdoing, going back to at least 1999, were repeatedly brought to the attention of SEC staff, but were never recommended to the commission for action."I am gravely concerned by the apparent multiple failures over at least a decade to thoroughly investigate these allegations or at any point to seek formal authority to pursue them," Cox said. SEC staff relied on information voluntarily provided by Madoff and his firm rather than using subpoenas to obtain it, Cox said.Cox has asked the agency's internal watchdog to probe the agency's conduct in the Madoff case. Specifically, Cox has asked the inspector general to review past allegations and the reasons they were not found credible. The inspector general probe should also include all staff contact and relationships with the Madoff family and firm, Cox added.Madoff's niece Shana Madoff, a compliance lawyer at Madoff's firm, is married to a former SEC staffer, Eric Swanson, who was the agency's assistant director in the office of compliance inspections and examinations.The compliance division is in charge of examining registered entities, such as broker dealers, investment companies and investment advisers.A spokesman for Swanson said Swanson's romantic relationship with his wife began years after the compliance team he helped supervise made an inquiry about Bernard Madoff's securities operations."Mr. Swanson is aware of the SEC's internal investigation and he intends to fully co-operate," Swanson's spokesman said on Tuesday.




1. The US has made a new weapon that destroys people but keeps the building standing. It's called the stock market. 2. Do you have any idea how cheap stocks are? Wall Street is now being called Wal Mart Street. 3. The difference between a pigeon and a London investment banker. The pigeon can still make a deposit on a BMW.4. What's the difference between a guy who lost everything in Las Vegas and an investment banker? A tie!5. The problem with investment bank balance sheet is that on the left side nothing's right and on the right side nothing's left.6. I want to warn people from Nigeria who might be watching our show, if you get any emails from Washington asking for money, it's a scam. Don't fall for it.7. Bush was asked about the credit crunch. He said it was his favourite candy bar. 8. The rescue bill was about 450 pages. President Bush's copy is even thicker. They had to include pictures. 9. President Bush's response was to meet some small business owners in San Antonio last week. The small business owners are General Motors, General Electric and Century 21. 10. What worries me most about the credit crunch, is that if one of my cheques is returned stamped 'insufficient funds'. I won't know whether that refers to mine or the bank's

Friday, December 12, 2008

Fragmentation, Burgundy, NZX, CESAME, Bondi results

G’day All,

Hectic week, so afraid I have not kept up with the news.

Just a quick word on fragmentation. Yes, there is an arms race going on out there. No, maybe MTFs are not the right people to own SOR Technology. Best execution. I find it pretty wild to suggest that some SORs include the post trade or elements of the clearing and settlement cost. I mean how much latency does that add? (especially as different CCPs have different volume bands – so you need to make some assumptions) along with the more material fact that settlement is a net value and trades are charged gross to execute and clear. On a post trade basis, we need to look at the costs to the industry. Even with todays technology, by the time you balance the respective post trade models and tariffs the trading opportunity would be lost. If there is a vendor out there, factoring in C&S, please give me a demo. If it works, I’d love to sing your praises.

Market Share Reports:
http://about.reuters.com/productinfo/compliance/MiFID/MarketShare.aspx
JPM: Where is your weekly fragmentation index available?

Other stuff:
IBM: STG 200 million is too big a material outsourcing in my view. I don’t expect this deal to be re-newed. As for Chile, the exchange moves up to 3K trades per second w/ IBM. Chi-X is running at 115K orders per second. (more than 30 times) http://www.chi-x.com/Faster_Performance_capacity.htm
NZX: JSE looks like giving a stocking filler, whilst their IT partner adds staff.
EC: CESAME report on the six Giovannini Barriers to post-trading

What you could buy today…if you hadn’t spent the cash on ABN. Wow.
One from my bro: I liked the Dryblower view.

Roles: I got a note from an agency this week looking to fill clearing sales (1) and relationship management (2) roles in UK.
I don’t think any pay over 90K STG. If you have interest I’ll forward the agents details for you to register.

Never enough time, but slowly I’m trying to spend some time on:
http://clearingandsettlement.blogspot.com/

I’m still alive after the Bondi / Bronte swim. As one reader commented, fortunately I didn’t lose one arm to a shark, or I’d still be swimming in circles.

Sons b’day this week-end. So pizza and pool party for me!

Good w/end all,

S




FSA will not stand in the way of LSE’s dark order plans

Two MTFs could fail in 2009 - NET2S

Chi-X introduces historical data analytics tool

AES could escape Credit Suisse cuts
(wonderful news!)

ICAP enters dark pool market despite volume, regulatory concerns
….anyone know where I can see the… J.P. Morgan’s weekly fragmentation index ????

SIX x-clear to start new year with price cuts
(this is good news and I think a step forward for comparability too).

Burgundy welcomes DnB NOR as shareholder
(Burgundy is set to launch in the first half of 2009. The platform’s other shareholders include Avanza Bank, Carnegie & Co, Danske Bank, Evli Bank, HQ Bank, Kaupthing Bank (Sverige), NeoNet, Nordnet, SEB, Svenska Handelsbanken, Swedbank and Öhman.
10th Dec…..at zero yield.
Market Snapshot: Stocks Fall as Investors Flock to TreasuriesInvestors bought $30 billion of T-bills at a yield of 0%, indicating continued fear in the market. Poor earnings reports weighed on sentiment.
more


INSTINET EXECUTION DATA SHOWS 'MTF EFFECT' ON EUROPEAN SHARE TRADING The success of new alternative European trading venues in winning business away from incumbent domestic exchanges has been demonstrated in the latest batch of execution figures released by Instinet Europe covering the 12 months since the introduction of the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID).
Full story:
http://www.finextra.com/fullstory.asp?id=19416

BIG BLUE SCORES WITH FRIENDS PROVIDENT AND THE CHILEAN STOCK EXCHANGE UK life and pensions outfit Friends Provident has inked a 10 year, £200 million, IT and infrastructure services outsourcing deal with IBM.
Full story:
http://www.finextra.com/fullstory.asp?id=19418

JSE WINS SUPPORT FOR REVISED BOND EXCHANGE TENDER The Johannesburg Stock Exchange has reached agreement to buy the Bond Exchange of South Africa after raising its initial offer price by 39% from R173 million to R240.58 million.
Full story:
http://www.finextra.com/fullstory.asp?id=19414

TRAYPORT HIRES QUINN, KAY, NIMMERGUT AND LAI
http://www.finextra.com/fullpr.asp?id=25093

EC report on cross-border securities transactions clearing and settlement published:
The report provides an overview of the work done on the six Giovannini Barriers to post-trading and of the state of play on nine Barriers attributed to the public sector.
http://ec.europa.eu/internal_market/financial-markets/clearing/cesame_en.htm

Nomura to launch European electronic trading service in early 2009
http://www.thetradenews.com/electronic-trading/2584


FINANICAL NEWS: Europe’s New MTFs Pass the Stress Test By Tom Fairless 12/8/08Europe’s stock markets have had a rough year. Little more than 10 months after new laws threw open the continent’s equities trading infrastructure to competition, a series of tumultuous news forced the nascent system through a brutal initiation ceremony.
The collapse of Lehman Brothers, government bailouts of US insurance giant AIG and mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the fire-sale of Merrill Lynch triggered a frantic rush by investors to offload assets.
The resulting surge in volatility constituted a severe test for an infrastructure that has been profoundly remodelled since November, when the EU’s markets in financial instruments directive ushered in an array of new multilateral trading facilities and anonymous trading venues, or dark pools.
Alasdair Haynes, chief executive of broker ITG International, said: “There has been more message traffic than at any other point in history. The new system has been stress-tested very early in its life.”Nevertheless, observers feel the infrastructure coped well. George Andreadis, head of advanced execution services liquidity strategy at Credit Suisse, said: “The systems performed well. Most multilateral trading facilities built their systems from scratch, so they had a lot of capacity to cope with the higher volumes.”Some observers argue that, far from weakening the system, the MTFs provided additional trading capacity that relieved the stress on primary exchanges. Peter Randall, chief executive of MTF Chi-X Europe, said: “Without the extra capacity provided by the MTFs, the situation would have been far worse.”The network that links market participants with new and old trading venues also coped well with the massive volumes, according to Emmanuel Carjat, chief executive of Atrium Network, a trading software firm.He said: “We remained well within our capacity limits because we built the infrastructure to handle huge US-style loads.”National stock exchanges, for their part, were boosted by recent investments in technology. Last year, the LSE completed a four-year, £40m (€47m) programme to raise capacity and slash latency, turning the market into what its chief executive Clara Furse has called “the most advanced technology platform of any central marketplace.”Andreadis said: “The LSE instituted a massive upgrade last year, so was pretty well-placed to cope with the increase in volumes.”That investment did not, though, avert the one serious failure to befall Europe’s trading infrastructure during the recent turmoil.On September 8, as global trading activity surged on news of a US decision to bail out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, a system failure at the LSE cut off trading for more than seven hours.Crucially, traders put their efforts into restoring links with the LSE rather than switching to the new venues, demonstrating the market’s continued reliance on the primary exchange. One reason for this suggested by market participants is that liquidity at the new venues is driven largely by statistical arbitrage, which involves trading on price discrepancies between the LSE and other platforms.Another theory is that firms have been slow to link up to the new venues because they had grown used to the status quo. Others believe rival trading systems were unable to price stocks accurately without the primary market.Haynes said escalating fear caused traders to shun MTFs in favour of traditional exchanges. He said: “The market did not move away from the LSE when its system crashed because people go to safety in times of turmoil.”However, others see no evidence for such a shift. Richard Balarkas, chief executive of agency broker Instinet Europe, said: “The price improvements offered by MTFs remained attractive to many players.”Meanwhile, the post-trade equities infrastructure – loosely, clearing and settlement systems – held up well during the crisis, although gaps in the system emerged as participants scrutinised their trading more closely. One such gap was the absence of centralised clearing in Scandinavia, which heightened counterparty risk on some exchanges, according to Balarkas.Nasdaq OMX plugged this gap in October, taking a 22% stake in European Multilateral Clearing Facility, the clearing house owned by troubled Dutch lender Fortis, and agreeing to use EMCF to clear trades in its Nordic cash equity markets.Another crack in the post-trade infrastructure involves the reporting of off-exchange trades. Mifid requires participants to report all such transactions, but varying interpretations of the rules means they do so at different times and in disparate locations, making it difficult to get a view of the whole market.Andreadis said: “There have been some issues with how to interpret Mifid’s post trade transparency requirements, but this is by and large being sorted out by the market.”There are those among the trading community who believe lessons can be learned from the US to create a national best bid and offer, whereby all platforms send data to a single consolidated tape. The FSA is in talks with UK investment banks and fund managers to address this issue, according to sources close to the matter.A further issue to emerge during the bout of volatility was the lack of harmonised regulation in key areas, such as short sales, according to Randall. He said: “Changes to the rules that restricted short-selling were not introduced on a pan-European basis, which led to uncertainty.”Overall, participants feel the restructuring of equities markets has increased their ability to withstand external shocks. Haynes said: “My gut feeling is that market fragmentation helped the situation. I am still a massive advocate for competition.”Nevertheless, the unusual conditions make it difficult to judge whether some of the new players’ business models are viable in the longer term. Haynes said: “We are right in the middle of something the markets have never seen.”The MTFs may have held up well simply because they bought in their technology from elsewhere. Balarkas said: “The underlying technology is not necessarily new just because the name on the brass plate is new. MTFs may have bought in their technology.”There are also outstanding questions around how to calculate indices such as the FTSE 100 if the LSE doesn’t open. Balarkas said: “It is surprising how slow the market is at thinking through such issues.”


A variation on this stat has been doing the rounds for a few weeks now, so forgive me if you've seen it before. I picked this up from the aptly-named
Doomsday Report blog.
In October last year, RBS paid $100 billion for ABN Amro (80% cash), and faced a fair amount of shareholder opposition to the valuation. If they were to use that money today, according to current market caps, they could buy the following:
Morgan Stanley: $16.3 billion
Goldman Sachs: $26.2 billion
Merrill Lynch $19.3 billion
Deutsche Bank: $17.4 billion
Barclays: $12.9 billion
And still have enough spare to change to buy the entire auto industry!
http://www.finextra.com/community/fullblog.aspx?id=2269


A number of people have asked me about Markit’s launch of its fragmentation analysis (see
http://www.finextra.com/fullstory.asp?id=19393). Reading this it seems that Markit has a different (although still valuable) objective from our own. To quote: “The service ranks brokers on each European trading venue, stock or index according to the volume and value of their trades”. If I have understood this correctly then it will show the market share that brokers have on different venues and indices which is completely different from measuring liquidity fragmentation across the actual venues themselves. Isn’t this basically the same as AutEx BlockDATA® whose website says it “is the most comprehensive tool available for gauging broker market share in global equity markets. AutEx BlockDATA® ranks brokers based on trading activity by volume or value traded in selected stocks, markets, or industries.”?
I guess fragmentation fever has resulted in some slight confusion about the different goals of our respective offerings. I can see how Markit’s service will help the buy-side better understand the venues that brokers are trading on but I don’t see how it helps the trading community “identify pools of liquidity” given that it ignores the venues themselves and only covers 60% of the traded volume. Still, I would certainly like to find out more - if anyone has a view then please let me know.
You may view the latest post at
http://fragmentation.fidessa.com/2008/12/05/fragmentation-fever/


Fidessa Fragmentation Index has posted a new item, 'FFI extends into the 250'
Thanks to the Xmas elves at Fidessa Labs working overtime, we now include coverage of the FTSE 250 which many of you have requested via email. Having had a quick look this morning it’s interesting to see that Chi-X is making a big dent in the 250 (as well as the FTSE 100) and that, whilst their numbers are relatively low, BATS and Nasdaq OMX are beating Turquoise into 4th spot on FTSE 250 stocks. Turquoise on the other hand seems to be keeping its gains made recently in FTSE 100 stocks.
Looking at the FTSE 250 data today provides another reminder of one of the central themes of this blog - that MTFs need to compete through specialisation not price wars. These ideas are developed further in the excellent Crossing the Chasm series of books by Geoffrey A. Moore which have been required texts for all of us here at Fidessa Towers this year. There are a lot of firms with deep pockets backing the MTF community and so being cheaper looks like a long and very expensive strategy. Differentiation, on the other hand, has been the way forward for many successful technology companies which, by the way, is the business that the MTFs are in. In fact, I was chatting yesterday about this with the CEO of an MTF who said that each venue needs to develop its own “personality”. This will then help the trading community know where to direct different types of flow. Anyway, I promise I won’t bring this point up again but I suspect that once these personalities hav e emerged we will all have a much clearer understanding of fragmentation.You may view the latest post at
http://fragmentation.fidessa.com/2008/12/10/ffi-extends-into-the-250/



IF DRYBLOWER believed the gloomy analysts at Merrill Lynch, the mining world faces even tougher times next year. If he believed the more optimistic analysts at Goldman Sachs, there is a light on the horizon. His solution to this investment banking credibility dilemma is to top up his glass.
He’s not alone. There is profound confusion about which way the world will jump in 2009 with only two things certain.Firstly, that not much is going to happen for the next few months because we are now in the eye of the storm, and secondly that a glass of something cold helps dull the sense of anxiety.Before slipping into a comfortably dull mental condition known by its medical name of “who gives a rats” Dryblower did take the time late last week to try and find some sort of consensus among the world’s financial experts. He failed.Not only are we in the eye of the storm, but the outlook is a bit like the eternal search for beauty, it’s in the eye of the beholder.In other words, everyone seems to be fumbling in the dark.However, while exploring for a consensus view of the world, and enjoying a crisp New Zealand white, it became clear that much of the bad news is coming from analysts working for investment banks which have themselves been severely hurt by the Global Financial Crisis – or GFC as it is fast becoming known.Merrill Lynch, the mob who frightened the iron ore sector on Friday with a forecast of big production cuts next year, is itself being torn apart and reassembled as a division inside the much bigger, and financially stronger, Bank of America.Dryblower’s prediction about that marriage of convenience is that it will end in divorce sooner rather than later because the entrepreneurial culture of the stockbrokers inside Merrill Lynch will clash instantly with the banker (with a W) mentality in a conventional bank. It always has, and always will.Perhaps the anxiety inside Merrill Lynch itself caused its analysts to hit a new level of panic when suggesting BHP Billiton might need to cut iron ore output by a whopping 25% in 2009 as world steel production crumbles.We all know times are tough, but the forecast of a 25% production cut is astonishing, especially as BHP Billiton itself has just announced a $4.8 billion expansion of its iron ore business in Western Australia.The view of the world from the window of Goldman Sachs – a firm which has orchestrated its survival quite brilliantly thanks partly to having friends in very high places – is quite different when it comes to the mining world.A few days before Merrill Lynch published its modern-day equivalent of “we’ll all be rooned, said Hanrahan in accents most forlorn” the chaps at Goldman discovered a silver lining that brightened Dryblower’s day, and perhaps his year.In a fascinating examination of the GFC, Goldman probed the question of timing in the de-stocking process through which we are passing. In a nutshell, it found a cut in the production of end product, such as steel, can lead to a dramatic short-term reduction in the supply of fresh raw material.Goldman doesn’t use this ultra-simple explanation devised by Dryblower, but it’s actually all about “first in, first out”. In other words, if you have a stockpile of iron ore, nickel, vanadium and molybdenum in your yard you use that first and tell the supply to hold off on deliveries. And, once you’ve eaten into your stockpiles, you call for fresh supplies – and a large price cut, please.It was this simple discovery of the obvious that caused Goldman to get rather excited and suggest we are in the middle of a dramatic de-leveraging process which is being exacerbated by speculators dumping their “paper” investments in commodities.The key point from Goldman is that a 10% fall in steel production “could easily translate into a temporary 50% fall in iron ore shipments”.But, once the crisis is past a new normality returns, which will be based on a 10% reduction in demand and not 50%, which is how it feels right now, leading to a rebound in shipments from mid-2009.Both views, that from Merrill Lynch and that from Goldman Sachs, are interesting theories – and almost as interesting is the fact that one came from a deeply troubled firm (the pessimists) and the other from a firm of survivors (the optimists).Dryblower’s final word on all this mumbo-jumbo: Cheers!

Results are up:
http://www.bonditobronte.com.au/
http://multisportaustralia.racetectiming.com/default.aspx
I was swimmer 1151.
Time: 35.21
I came 50th in age 40-44.
469 (1,384) in the men and 594 (1,846) overall (incl. girls)
As a novice, I’m happy with that.
I think I could easily have shaved a minute off this but I wanted to enjoy the event and get familiar with the course etc.
This was a great event that I thoroughly recommend.
Good fun.
I’m now going to do another one: Roughwater on 11/Jan.


On a tour of NZ, the Pope took a couple of days off to visit the ocean for some sightseeing.
He was cruising along the beach at Wanganui in his car, when there was a frantic commotion just off the shore.
A helpless man wearing a green and gold Aussie rugby jersey was struggling frantically to free himself, from the jaws of a 5-metre shark.

As the Pope watched horrified, a Waka cruised up alongside with two men wearing All Black jerseys.
Rangi quickly threw a harpoon into the shark's side.
Hohepa reached out and pulled the mauled, bleeding and semiconscious Aussie from the water.
Then, using long clubs, Rangi and Hohepa killed the shark and hauled it into the boat.

Immediately the Pope summoned them to the beach, 'I give you my blessing for your brave actions,' he told them.
'I heard that there was some bitter rivalry between New Zealand and Australia , but now I have seen with my
own eyes that this is not true.'

As the Pope drove off, Rangi asked Hohepa 'Who the hell was that, bro?'
'That was the Pope cuz' Hohepa replied. 'He's in direct contact with God bro, and has access to all of God's wisdom.'
'Well' Rangi said, 'he may have access to God's wisdom, but he don't know bugger all about shark fishing .........
Is the bait holding up okay, or do we need to get another Aussie?".

Sunday, December 7, 2008

The origin of a share / a piece of the action

I really enjoyed this little snippet.

Thanks to:
http://www.phrases.org.uk/a-phrase-a-week/add.html

A piece of the action
Meaning: A share in an activity, or in its profits.

Origin: 'A piece of the action' has an unambiguously American flavour. It brings to mind images of gangster movies with Jimmy Cagney and the like demanding 'hey, gimme a pieca da action'. When the Star Trek franchise opted for a mobster themed episode in 1968 they called it 'A Piece of the Action'. It isn't essentially a US phrase though and tracing its genesis takes us well outside the USA and into a history of finance.

In the early 1600s, the Dutch came upon an interesting trading innovation - the company. Until then, the spice trade had been profitable but small scale, with spices being brought back from 'the Indies' (broadly what we now call Asia) along the tortuous Spice Road on pack horses. The high price of spices encouraged entrepreneurs to build ships to bring the spices back in larger quantities. There was big money to be made, but the large capital cost of building a fleet and the threat of loss from pirates made it too risky a venture for an individual investor; so, in 1602, they formed a company - the Dutch East India Company.

Dutch citizens were invited to invest in the company, which had been given exclusive trading rights to half the world and tax-free status back home. Profits were huge and the clamour to invest was intense. Dirck Bas Jacobsz, one of the company's founders, was instrumental in managing the joint ownership by offering what were then called in Dutch 'acties' or, in English, 'actions'. These were certificates that promised a share in any future profits of the company and what, not unnaturally, came later to be called share certificates. These shares were often purchased by groups rather than individuals. What each of these good citizens had bought was literally 'a piece of the action'.The term 'action', which continued to be used in that context well into the 19th century, was first recorded in English in John Evelyn's Diary, published between 1641 and 1706:"African Actions fell to £30, and the India to £80."

'A piece of the action' is certainly a 20th century American phrase. Despite its 1930s mobster overtones, the first use of it that I can find is in the 1957 film Monkey on My Back:"You want a piece of my action, Sam?"The 'action' in the phrase means 'a share in an activity; an opportunity'. It is doubtful that whoever coined it in 1950s America knew the history of the Dutch East Indies Company but, knowingly or not, it was the Dutch 'acties' that were the source of that meaning of 'action'.

(orginally mentioned in my 5th Dec email / blog)

Subprime Humour















































































SBL, CCPs, Shares (origin), Dark pools

Right,

I have 3 mins to do this!

Yahoo: Golden age for CCPs. Every dog has his day.
Another great trivia story: Shares
SBL: Couple of Q’s on this.
UBS: Congrats on move to X-Clear
Malaysia: Funny story. Nothing about the UBS Sapphire trading platform. However another regional win for NYSE Euronext (The infrastructure includes the NSC trading platform, Aramis market surveillance platform, and PAM broker workstations).
HSBC: Congrats on Canary Wharf?
Chi-X numbers out.
Dark Pools: Volatility, ICAP, Navigation, Grey order types

Wallabies: Almost as poor as the ref. Deserved to lose.

Wish me luck this w/end:
http://www.bonditobronte.com.au/

I’ll try and tidy this up on the blog at:
http://clearingandsettlement.blogspot.com/

Great week end all.

S




Securities Lending CCPs

In response to one reader: Yes, this is an interesting development.
Both X-Clear and Eurex are now planning to offer CCP services on securities lending / borrowing (SLB).

Initially, Chi-X customers were not interested in a SLB service, neither from Chi-X nor centrally cleared from EMCF.
Brokers already have sufficiently advanced and mature systems and relationships in place.
The SLB world is also much less high volume. If you’re trading the FTSE100 constituents you’re only borrowing / lending 100 names.
I.e. SLB by its nature is already net.

In a subprime world where counterparty risk counts for so much more, I can now see this as a real service during times of stress for niche players and lesser known names. Once the market returns to normality I think the demand for the service may drop off. I also think there is already anonymity in the securities lending world so this is not an issue. I am not sure of the STP advantages, this could make the service a bit more ‘sticky’.

Another variable is how exchanges offer a formal SLB product and if their users embrace this or they prefer traditional means. Short selling bans also slow the whole business down in my view. People are becoming more ‘attached’ to their inventory in the current environment.

I don’t know the commercials. Today, I guess there is value in not taking risk with certain names but still getting your trade done. Tomorrow, once more is known about the credit situation and valuation the marginal economies I suspect will come back into play.

So an interesting and welcome development (I do believe in all thinks CCP). But I am not sure the materiality will transform the financial future of CCPs. I see this as more of a service than a revenue generator.


One securities lending specialist said none of the market participants would find much attraction in CCP offerings that do not manage dividend payments and corporate actions. He also said any clearing service unable to support current trading practices, whereby loan deals are struck on an open basis, would be unlikely to take off.
Roy Zimmerhansl, a former head of Icap’s securities lending platform and now a consultant, takes a more balanced approach. He said the entities that dominate the securities lending industry will resist change, hoping to maintain their stranglehold over the intermediation of flows between borrowers and lenders. He also doubted whether beneficial owners will want to sacrifice the collateral they typically take against inventory in return for the surety of facing a CCP. He also aired doubts over how fast agent lenders will want, or be able to, change their documentation and trading practices to support the ventures. Even so, Zimmerhansl said there is room for CCPs to carve out a niche in the market. Furthermore, if central clearing were to be encouraged or imposed by regulators, he said this would tip the balance and make central clearing pervasive throughout the securities lending market. This is possible, since supervisors will be looking for any way to reduce risks and increasing transparency in the financial marketplace.

SECFINEX SIGNS WITH SIS X-CLEAR FOR SECURITIES LENDING CCP Nyse Euronext subsidiary SecFinex has commissioned SIS x-clear to develop a central counterparty service for stock borrowing and lending across the SecFinex Order Market.
Full story: http://www.finextra.com/fullstory.asp?id=19335

Eurex and Clearstream to introduce CCP for securities lending
http://www.finextra.com/fullstory.asp?id=19327


Central counterparties move into a golden age Central counterparties are bucking every trend in the financial industry. In the words of one particularly excitable enthusiast, clearing is the new rock ’n’ roll.

03/12/2008 12:08:00UBS TO SWITCH CLEARING TO SIS X-CLEARUBS is set to become the first London Stock Exchange client to switch its clearing from incumbent provider LCH.Clearnet to Switzerland's X-Clear, under a new competitive clearing regime introduced by the LSE in September.More on this story: http://www.finextra.com/fullstory.asp?id=19382

28/11/2008 11:03:00UBS LAUNCHES MALAYSIAN DMA AS EXCHANGE PREPARES NEW TRADING PLATFORMUBS has launched direct market access (DMA) on Bursa Malaysia, and rolled out its proprietary execution management system, UBS Sapphire, as the exchange prepares to switch to its new cash equities trading platform on Monday.More on this story: http://www.finextra.com/fullstory.asp?id=19353

GO TO ECONOMIST.COMThe Spanish property company that bought HSBC’s headquarters in London’s Canary Wharf last year for £1.1 billion ($2.2 billion) offered to sell it back to the British bank for £838m. The tower was the first building in Britain to fetch more than £1 billion.

Fortis board gets booed by angry shareholders
http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/20081201/fortis-board-gets-booed-by-angry-shareholders_1.htm

04/12/2008 12:50:00MARKIT LAUNCHES MIFID FRAGMENTATION INDEXFinancial information outfit Markit has combined with eleven top dealers to provide a consolidated source of aggregated data on market activity and liqudity across fragmenting European trading destinations.More on this story: http://www.finextra.com/fullstory.asp?id=19393

02/12/2008 13:27:00
UK COMPETITION WATCHDOG REFRAINS FROM INTERVENTION IN CLEARING
The UK's Office of Fair Trading has decided not to take any further action in the market for derivatives clearing, after inviting views earlier this year.
More on this story:
http://www.finextra.com/fullstory.asp?id=19373

BIS: Supervisory guidance for assessing banks' financial instrument fair value practiceshttp://www.bis.org/publ/bcbs145.htm

EC confident about post-trade sector harmony plans The European Commission is adamant the credit crunch will not derail its efforts to build a harmonised capital market in Europe.

Chi-X Total Consideration Traded:November 2008: EUR 57,044,981,870October 2008: EUR 109,157,247,286That’s a decline of EUR 52,112,265,416 or 47.74%Chart on: http://clearingandsettlement.blogspot.com/

ICAP Said to Plan Stock-Exchange Rival, ‘Dark Pool’ for SharesBy Nandini SukumarDec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- ICAP Plc, the world’s largest broker of trades between banks, plans to start an alternative trading platform for stocks in competition with traditional exchanges, according to a person with direct knowledge of the situation. The London-based company wants to develop a multilateral trading facility by the second half of 2009, said the person who declined to be identified because the plans aren’t public. The electronic system for banks and fund managers will be created specifically to handle large blocks of shares and act as a so- called dark pool that won’t display prices, the person said. ICAP, which in 2006 ended merger talks with London Stock Exchange Group Plc, joins other so-called MTFs including Chi-X Europe Ltd., Turquoise, Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. and Bats Trading Inc., all of which aim to take market share from the traditional European stock exchanges.

02/12/2008 15:41:00
LIQUIDNET POSTPONES IPO
Buy-side trading network Liquidnet has shelved plans to go public until 2010 due to poor market conditions.
More on this story:
http://www.finextra.com/fullstory.asp?id=19376

04/12/2008 11:28:00LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE SET TO OUST NASDAQ OMX IN NORWAYThe London Stock Exchange has executed a daring raid on the 'home' turf of Nasdaq OMX, after signing a letter of intent with Oslo Børs to establish a strategic partnership and provide a new trading system.More on this story: http://www.finextra.com/fullstory.asp?id=19392

New Star valuation collapses from £500m to ‘token 1p’ New Star’s shares, once worth £500m (€585m), were valued by stockbrokers on Tuesday at a "token 1p", as the fund manager is poised to cede control a banking syndicate led by HBOS, which includes HSBC, Royal Bank of Scotland and National Australia Bank. (The Guardian)


Volatility pushes dark pools into the shade Widely vaunted over the past year as the next big thing for the European equities markets, dark pools have suffered in recent weeks amid market volatility and growing concerns about counterparty risk, following the collapse of Lehman Brothers and doubts about the viability of other large institutions.

ADVANCED TRADING: Navigating Liquidity in a Post-MiFID WorldBy Charles-Albert Lehalle 12/3/08"Now that Chi-X has been live long enough to assert its efficiency as a trading destination, we observe that as the availability of new trading destinations increases, the optimal way to trade changes" says Charles-Albert Lehalle, Head of Quantitative Research at CA Cheuvreux and author of a new research report titled, "Navigating Liquidity", which investigates the optimal way to trade in a post-MiFID liquidity landscape. While the availability of new trading destinations since MiFID came into effect on 1 November 2007 has improved the liquidity offer and the available information on the price formation process, it also simultaneously increases, exponentially, the complexity of intra-day trading. While the search for a counterpart and the price discovery take place on their own time scale, the fair value of the exchanged assets and its level of uncertainty evolve on another time scale. One of the difficult tasks for investors is to find a balance between those two time scales. Once the fair price of an asset is known with a good level of certainty, trading too fast might cause a loss on the microstructure scale, such as paying a large price impact or missing the adequate counterpart. Taking these two time scales into account requires finding a subtle balance between trading fast, to minimise the market risk, and trading slowly, to be sure of having enough information on the price formation process and finding a counterpart large enough to avoid market impact. Moreover, the appropriate combination is unique for each investor; it has to take into account his or her own risk aversion. "That's why investors are well advised to utilise SORs (Smart Order Routers) and trading algorithms that are best adapted to this new context," says Lehalle. New destinations have a strong incentive to innovate in terms of trading rules, thus trading algorithms must continuously evolve as new destinations become available. Tick size also has a clear impact on trading efficiency and must thus be taken into account by SORs to efficiently route orders. To be efficient, SORs must for example be adapted to the fact that the sensitivity of some stocks to NY opening on Chi-X is really different from those on their primary markets. Moreover, the optimal way to trade a stock on a given trading destination depends on a subtle mix between the trading rules of the destination, the type of investor populating it, and the specific properties of the stock and its underlying asset. Embedding quantitative methods in algorithmic trading and SOR strategy is a good answer to the continuously changing mix of investors. "Navigating Liquidity," CA Cheuvreux's analysis of the issues surrounding liquidity access, concludes that the well known strategy of using trading algorithms to optimise the execution of large orders by slicing them in volume-indexed intervals, now has a cross-exchange equivalent: optimal slicing across trading destinations, taking into account investors' risk aversion. "This trading approach will have to be adapted to the rate of change in the European landscape which, to-date, has developed later than in the US and is likely to have fewer ultimate destinations," concludes Lehalle. About the Author Charles-Albert Lehalle is Head of Quantitative Research at CA Cheuvreux. He also lectures at the "Paris 6 (Elkaroui) Master of Finance" (Ecole Polytechnique, ESSEC, Ecole Normale Suprieure) and gives master classes in the Certificate in Quantitative Finance in London. He has also given lectures at numerous seminars and international conferences at MIT and the University of Edinburgh. With a Ph.D. in applied mathematics, Charles is an expert in stochastic processes, information theory and nonlinear control. He has published international papers in quantitative finance, real time optimisation of high dimensional processes (with applications to Formula One, high mix fabs, large plants, aerospace), and learning theory



PRESS RELEASE: BNY ConvergEx Group Announces 'Grey' Order Type 12/2/08BNY ConvergEx Group, LLC, a leading provider of global agency brokerage and investment technology solutions, today announced the release of "Grey," its latest TactEx order type. Grey is designed to actively sweep available displayed liquidity while an order is marketable and then post the remaining balance across multiple dark pools, including VortEx(SM), ConvergEx's agency dark pool with patent-pending IOI aggregation technology. This order type was developed to capture liquidity as it becomes available while minimizing a trader's footprint in the market.With unprecedented levels of volatility in today's marketplace, orders that once stood out in the crowd are now hidden. Liquidity today is quickly being dispersed between transparent market centers and dark pools. To capture non-displayed flow, current smart order routing technology needs to shift between light and dark seamlessly. TactEx is the first suite of DMA order types that allows traders to access both dark and displayed liquidity simultaneously. Designed to increase execution opportunities by reaching multiple liquidity sources and simplifying workflow, TactEx helps to maximize execution rates and improve performance. Unlike dark algorithms, which are built to make decisions for traders, TactEx gives traders more control over execution strategies.Joseph M. Velli, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, BNY ConvergEx Group, stated, "With liquidity fragmented between displayed markets and dark pools, traditional execution tools are quickly becoming obsolete. Grey, our latest TactEx order type, is another example of ConvergEx's ongoing commitment to innovation. We will continue to develop sophisticated products and technologies to help clients efficiently aggregate and access the breadth of available liquidity in the evolving electronic marketplace."

A piece of the action (removed to separate entry)


WINNERS OF THE MY OZONE SUNSCREEN WRIST BANDS….
http://www.kmsevents.com/Event_ENews.html



From the ARU website.

The WC2011 website says the ticketing process will be decided early in 2009 with tickets going on sale later in 2009. Start planning.

Australia seeded top of Pool C for 2011 Rugby World Cup December 02, 2008 - 10:02am Story by: ARU

The Wallabies have been drawn in Pool C with Ireland and Italy for the 2011 Rugby World Cup in New Zealand.
The Qantas Wallabies have been drawn in Pool C – alongside Ireland, Italy and yet-to-be-determined qualifiers from Europe and the Americas – for the 2011 Rugby World Cup in New Zealand.

The draw in London today spread the 12 pre-qualified nations across the four pools of five teams each, while the last eight positions in the tournament (two spots in each pool) will be determined by regional qualifying events.

Official International Rugby Board rankings were used for the draw process, with the pre-qualified teams from the 2007 RWC in France given Band 1, Band 2 or Band 3 classification.

Band 4 and Band 5 teams will be determined once qualifying in various regions is complete.

The draw was random across each of the bands and produced the following pools (IRB rankings are in brackets behind the top three seeded teams in each group):

POOL A POOL B POOL C POOL D

New Zealand(1) Argentina(4) Australia(3) South Africa(2)

France(7) England(6) Ireland(8) Wales(5)

Tonga(13) Scotland(9) Italy(11) Fiji(10)

Americas 1 Europe 1 Europe 2 Oceania 1

Asia 1 Playoff winner Americas 2 Africa 1


The highlights of the draw include:

+ Australia to face three European teams in Pool C, led by Ireland
and Italy. On current world rankings, Europe 2 would be Romania and Americas 2 would be USA.

+ Host nation New Zealand will play France in Pool A – the same side
that beat the All Blacks in the quarter finals of the 2007 Rugby World Cup.

+ England will meet long time rivals Scotland in the preliminary
stages for the first time in Pool B – the two countries contested a semi final back in 1991.

+ Defending champion South Africa has been drawn in Pool D against
Six Nations champion Wales and Fiji – the nation that gave the Springboks a scare in the 2007 quarter finals.

The knockout section of the 2011 RWC will unfold as follows:

Quarter Final 1: Winner Pool B v Runner-up Pool A
Quarter Final 2: Winner Pool C v Runner-up Pool D
Quarter Final 3: Winner Pool A v Runner-up Pool B
Quarter Final 4: Winner Pool D v Runner-up Pool C

Semi-Final 1: Winner QF1 v Winner QF2
Semi-Final 2: Winner QF3 v Winner QF4

Third place playoff: Loser SF1 v Loser SF2
Final: Winner SF1 v Winner SF2

An endless number of possibilities exist, including the following potential scenarios based on the IRB rankings:
+ Australia (if they top Pool C) will play the runner-up of Pool D
where, on the IRB rankings, Wales is the second seed

+ If the preliminary matches and the quarter finals pan out per the
IRB rankings and the seeding for each pool, the Wallabies would not face the All Blacks or Springboks until the final

+ If the Wallabies top Pool C and subsequently win their quarter
final they would face in the semis the winner of the quarter final between the top side in Pool B (Argentina per the rankings) and the runner up in Pool A (France per the rankings)

+ According to the draw, if the All Blacks and Springboks win their
respective pools and quarter finals, they will meet in the semi finals